Another affordable Tesla: Late again?

I remember the last time Elon Musk promised a low-priced Tesla. It was 2014 and the promise involved a compact electric sedan dubbed Model 3 that would be priced from $35,000 before tax incentives.

If you’ve been reading about the next “affordable” Tesla — the so-called Project Redwood vehicle that’s targeted for a $25,000 sticker and a 2025 production start date — you may be experiencing a sense of déjà vu. 

By the time it finally arrives, BYD and a cadre of Chinese competitors may already have sewn up the affordable EV market across the rest of the planet — effectively clearing the forest ahead of Redwood.

The Model 3 was the original “affordable” Tesla that Musk and his lieutenants had been talking up since 2007, when the germ of the car was beginning to take shape under the code name Blue Star.

A parade of hiccups delayed the car’s unveiling until 2016 and the actual start of production until mid-2017. Tesla continued to stumble through what Musk described as “production hell” and the Model 3 didn’t begin to scale up in volume until late 2018.

This headline in Wired, from January 2018, was typical of the media’s growing skepticism: “Tesla Delays Its Model 3 Production Goals — Again.”

Fueling that skepticism, the stickers on the first Model 3s off the line in California were nowhere close to $35,000 — they were closer, in fact, to $50,000. It was early 2019 before Tesla announced it would start taking orders for a stripped-down version at $35,000; it suspended the program two months later.

Currently, you can order a basic Model 3 in the U.S. from Tesla’s website for $40,630, which includes $1,640 in destination and “order” fees.

Back to Redwood.

Musk has been dropping broad hints about a $25,000 Tesla — which wishful-thinking pundits long ago christened Model 2 — for more than three years.  

The initial plan to build a smaller-than-Model 3 compact EV at Tesla’s planned Mexican plant was shelved in 2023. But Musk in late January this year said production of the next-generation EV now will start in mid to late 2025 in Texas, followed by Mexico and at least one more facility outside North America.

Knowing Musk and how he loves to set “stretch” targets for his people, Tesla may actually roll a handful of Redwood prototypes off the line in Austin before the end of next year.

But don’t be surprised if it’s 2027, or later, before you see this vehicle in any appreciable volume. By then, a $25,000 price tag may no more than a happy memory.